In the short-term, I am skeptical of rosy retail numbers after hearing Bill Tatro say they include gasoline sales. But I also think this is one of many dark indicators for the long term. Just as we seem to be building a very tenuous recovery based on cost-cutting, M&A, & layoffs (not on increased sales), a commodity boom threatens to further squeeze costs for both companies & individual customers. One hidden indicator is inflation in the US, the official measure of which includes housing at a 40% weight -- this at a time when almost no one is buying, even though the inflation measure is supposed to be based on a "representative" set of goods (and don't get me started about the cheating built into "core inflation," which leaves out necessities like food & fuels).
Oil Back at $90 as Growth Gains Pace - WSJ.com The article illustrates that unlike recent short-term price spikes, the current one is more structural (long-term), at a time when both Iraq & Saudi Arabia have ramped up production to meet rising global demand.
Trader Holds $3 Billion of LME Copper - WSJ.com I mention this metal instead of gold because it's a more utilitarian commodity (used in construction, cars, & all sorts of appliances). The article also mentions single traders holding large positions in nickel, zinc, & aluminum.
The flip side of this coin is that this commodity boom must be benefiting miners, oil drillers, etc. However, if you have any significant holdings in such producers, I recommend getting out soon, because once these prices break the backs of buyers, the prices should dive off a cliff. (The pain in the rest of the global economies eventually has to spread to commodities producers.)
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